Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Look At HYG

Basically...lots of selling, and equities should follow as equities normally follow credit.

Jos A Bank

Ben Bernanke's suit maker is not liking the action today.

Everything Closed

I'm done

If you're American vote Ron Paul or die. Seriously, just kill yourself...approach the ledge and step.

I will still post but as an observer, what's the point of trading anymore?

Ben Raped My Ass While I Slept

I took this screen shot before I closed the position because I figured I was good and fucked anyway. And I only sleep for a few hours at a time.

Little did I know how true my last post was ;)

I'm closing all my positions and saying fuck it. This is ridiculous.

Good luck all. Only advice I can give is don't be short when the money printer is on because adding zeros on a computer is not difficult.



The ECB or FED must step in here. The selling is, at this point... out of control.

Update: someone is buying ;).... ;) A.K.A money printer

I am sure oil will be up tomorrow (and no, it won't be because of Iran)

crude +100


That horizontal line...that's the the phase (in) level.

Chances are that level will break (the gap hasn't even been filled yet) So NatGas has some downside.

I'm a buyer below the horizontal line on a technical basis.

Ron Paul: Vietnam Veterans

Ron Paul: Military

Ron Paul

This Should Be Watched: agree or disagree?

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Fill Me: EUR/USD


New Project

I'm deeply involved in a new project and watching my positions closely and thus my posting has been irregular.

I'm hesitant to divulge too much about what I'm working on but if I can get it done it will be an incredible success. I am attempting to master something that normally takes a college degree and doing so in relatively short period of time. It's also very likely I will use this blog as a jumping point if I can get this off the ground so definitely stay tuned.

Not much has changed since my last post at least from a perspective of how I'm positioned in the markets and I don't see much changing. The only thing I'm really looking at is my FIO exposure which has rebounded from being down as much as -100k on that position to -32k. At this point I feel comfortable with everything else. The things I like about FIO is that with the expansion of technology it is positioned well (as a company) and it is run by an absolute tech guru/genius. I also like that it is almost under the radar in that most hedge funds aren't in it yet. The main concern I have is that when the financial tide goes out all ships go out with it.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Trade: -20 /ES @ 1190.50

Trade: MS Closed Out -10,000 shares @ 10.93


Yes, terrible day for me. No two ways about it (-40k on the day). It's a good thing I closed out that NatGas futures position. However, I will be putting it back on shortly as soon as that gap gets filled.

Those PCLN PUTS are taunting me (which is almost entirely where my losses are coming from today) Though FAZ is an obvious under-performer (though MS is looking quite dapper today). The /ES short is not doing well but don't forget I shorted that when it was already up handsomely. I'll post my P/L at the end of the day so you all can put it to sight.

However the most important news of the day which flabbergasted me: much for freedom Amerika.

Next is free speech and then welcome to the soviet states.

Though there is good news to compliment the bad news in that Barney Frank is retiring (THANK GOD) Next....Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Hussein Obama.

Trade: -20 /ES @1175

Trade: /NGG2 Closed Out

60 contracts have been closed out through various trades.

$51,023 profit booked

NatGas Breaks/Buying Areas

Trade: -150,000 EUR/USD

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Good Football

The Dollar Parallelogram

This pattern portends increased volatility -

Trade: +30 /NGG2 @ $3.698

This was a contrarian play on myself. I wanted to sell 30 contracts but instead I bought 30 contracts. The dollar and NatGas have an interesting relationship, but not only that we are entering winter and conflict has been brewing off of the Brazilian coast.

That gap concerns me, though I'm buying into the JAN contracts (/NGG2)

I have some interesting directional positions I'm looking at mainly regarding commodities so stay tuned.


There has been apparent maniacal moves in the markets this evening due to something (probably the potential expulsion of Greece from the EZ and the experimentation with the Drachma) I was tempted to fade this exuberance but I'm positioned comfortably for anything so I'm staying put....for now

Back Home

The rest of the year should be low volume but who knows with the state of the global economy. My posting will be picking back up.

Hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Not A Bad Day...So Far

It's been a wild day. I am shocked that JEF is doing as well as it is. As of two minutes ago I closed that position and booked the profit.


Tuesday, November 22, 2011

It's Shaping Up To Be A Rough Day

Futures have been very volatile tonight.

The /ES has seen wild swings which is not traditional for after hours futures trading to this magnitude.

NatGas (my biggest position) had a good start in spite of the vol in both the eur/usd and by extension the /ES. It has however deteriorated slightly.

It seems quite apparent that the MS/JEF positions I have are going to be stinkers though those positions are hedged with my 2,500 shares of FAZ. It should be noted that I never would have taken the positions in MS/JEF had FAZ not been available to me. I likely wouldn't even have taken those positions by hedging with PUTS.

The position in FIO I have will most likely just shit itself entirely (however comma) I have 40 PUTS in PCLN with a strike of 475 expiring in JAN. So the tech aspect of my portfolio is hedged.

I do have the 175 GLD CALLS expiring JUN 2012 but gold has been apathetic this evening.

That leaves me with my de minimis short eur/usd position that I would expect to perform handsomely if the down trodden trend of tonight's action continues through the opening tomorrow.

In summation, the portfolio is hedged comfortably though some adjustments may be warranted in the coming hours/days. Despite being home for Thanksgiving I have a family member whom is an extremely talented trader so the market is still something we are watching closely. If anyone is curious he/she is 100% short US equities so if this selling is real and continues he/she will be grinning like a 16 year old guy in a whorehouse.

I hope everyone is in good health and appreciating the finer things in life this holiday season. To me that is spending time with my family.


BTW - Ron Paul slaughtered the Republican debate tonight.

Trade: +6,000 Shares FIO @ $32.70

Total Position now at 12,000 shares

Monday, November 21, 2011

It's An AA World

It's no secret that the "Super Committee" failed to do whatever it was they were supposed to do, or did they?

When the S&P downgraded the US back in August it was on the heels of the European debt crisis maturing into the sardonic cacophony of rumor based innuendo that we have all learned to love. I thought the timing of the downgrade was suspicious but I was reluctant to base any kind of analysis on it.

However, now that the European crisis has led politicians to fall helplessly into the bottomless chasm of moral turpitude I am becoming ever more suspicious. The "Super Committee" which is a small group of 12 non-elected politicians operating under the auspice of secrecy has failed to meet it's mandate of solving our crippling debt problem. What does this mean? Well it means the US is probably getting downgraded again real soon. So why is this bullish?

Everyone knows Europe is two sheets away from completely collapsing under ratings downgrades, bond selling, and every other financial nightmare you can imagine. But if the US gets downgraded who's wiser to the difference? I can't help but to imagine that this "super committee" is nothing more than a leveling of the debt playing field...why else would it be so secret and led by an non-elected body?

If the US gets downgraded shortly and by extension abrogates the visceral selling of European debt then this is a conspiracy theory you can book. Just some food for thought.

Back In Beautiful Ridgefield, CT

Back in the home town for a few days visiting friends/family for Thanksgiving. The ride up US-13 was gorgeous, especially going over the Chesapeake Bay Bridge.

No stops were hit today (I was shocked) and I had a pretty good day.

On The Road

I'll be on the road headed to the New England area today. I have various stops in place so I'll update if any of them hit later on tonight.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Europe; a short word

US banks are dumping European exposure.

This is why you are seeing EZ spreads blow out. This is good for US banks

However...I will be looking at shorting USTs. The U.S hasn't escaped from this unscathed. We have just been lucky in that Europe is the browner turd in the punch bowl.

I'll be watching for now...closely.

Will We Open @ VWAP Friday Morning? /ES @ 1221 (Silver Circle)

Closing Bell And Positions

Trade: +10,000 MS @ 14.08

Trade: +9,000 JEF @ 10.18; -2,500 FAZ @ 47.20

Call The Close

I have no idea but I'm going to throw out a prediction.

1224.70 on the /ES which is where VWAP should be @ EOD

I'm not betting on this. This is just for shits n' giggles.

VWAP (purple line)

How Is The Portfolio Performing?

EUR/USD short isn't worth posting...+$250 on the day

Trade: +5,000 FIO @ $40.30

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Whole Lotta Love

Trade: Closed Copper Short (/HGZ1)

+10,000 profit

Trade: +20 /NG

Trade: -5 /HGZ1 @ 3.532

Trade: Closed USD/JPY

A paltry $3,000 booked

Trade: +4,000 LNG @ 11.06

Trade: +10 /NGG2 @ 3.56

Trade: /HGZ1 Closed Out @ 3.5064

Realized profit of $23,000

Trade: +20,000 UNG @ $7.83

Trade: +10,000 UNG @ 7.82

Trade: +10,000 UNG @ $7.81

Trade: +10,000 UNG @ $7.80

Trade: 4,000 LNG; /CTZ1 Closed @ 102.61

@ 12,000 shares of LNG; Booked $16,000 realized gain in Cotton

Trade: DNO Closed Out @ 36.30; Add To LNG

Closed Out of DNO and added 4,000 to LNG @ 11.22

Trade: GLD & LNG

+10 JUN12 175 GLD CALLS @ $14.70

+4000 LNG @ $11.05

Current Positions:

Equity/ETF/Options -

Commodity Futures -

Currencies -


I think today is going to be an interesting day for the markets. As it appears, Europe seems weak again but the ECB is in there printing money to buy bonds so where does that leave us? To be honest I'm not sure what to do and thinking of selling/covering everything.

A couple interesting points.

- Two democratic governments in Europe replaced their head of state without elections (Greece and Italy) and that is disturbing to me.

- Europe is at odds over itself and is trying to prevent downgrades. Well judging from the rhetoric coming out of the also not elected "super committee" (the shitty committee) it sounds like they are going to have problems coming to an agreement. So are we going to have another issue in the US as it relates to our own home grown debt crisis?

- The Feds Bullard said today that the FED will reopen liquidity facilities if Europe Worsens**

Things are looking really bad around the world but that's what has me indecisive. Things are SO BAD that I feel like at any moment massive money printing is about to occur which will cause prices to soar. Will the powers that be allow a full blown balls-to-the-wall crisis before printing or will they get the printing on before it gets it out of control? I just don't know.

Good luck trading!

Monday, November 14, 2011

#OccupyWallstreet Obersvation

Can anyone see that figure in the middle of the photo with the red/orange cap on his head? That's Michael Moore, and I'm sure everyone knows he was at the OWS movement. Well some also know that he is in fact a 1 percenter himself but that's not as interesting as an article I remember reading reading about him in 2009 from the Business Insider -

We see that the movie is presented by "Paramount Vantage" in association with the Weinstein Company. Bob and Harvey Weinstein are listed as executive producers. If Mr. Moore appreciates any of the irony here he sure doesn't share it with viewers, but for those members of the audience who are in on the secret it's all kind of amusing. Paramount Vantage, after all, is controlled by Viacom, on whose board sit none other than Sumner Redstone and former Bear Stearns executive Ace Greenberg, who aren't exactly socialists. The Weinstein Company announced it was funded with a $490 million private placement in which Goldman Sachs advised. The press release announcing the deal quoted a Goldman spokesman saying, "We are very pleased to be a part of this exciting new venture and look forward to an ongoing relationship with The Weinstein Company

Read more:

So not only is Michael Moore a 1 percenter, but Goldman Sachs helped make one of his movies.