Monday, October 31, 2011

What Can You Even Say?

Up Thrusday 300, -300 today

The volatility alone is telling me something

Italy 10Yr

Bond market calling BS on EZ bailout.

Here Ya Go

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Alert: Trade On Fire

Not a bad reversal of fortune from my post on Friday. Let's hope this sticks

Look at this freakin' rip!

Was there really any doubt that Japan would attempt to protect their exporters?

Friday, October 28, 2011

Updated P/L

So...October = horrendous month for me following a stellar September.

In summation most of the gains from last month have effectively been wiped clean. However, the winnings from September were booked as realized gains where as these are still open positions, so they are unrealized losses. There are two caveats: i. two of the largest losing positions I have are contracts (so I can't hold them forever) ii. the theta on the PCLN puts is going to rapidly reduce the overall likely this will be the first position I close when it comes to that.

October was an absolute stink bomb. I'm hoping for a flash crash in the last two hours of today's session to bring me to flat.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Don't Even Ask Me Why I Just Did This

I went against every inebriation and bought....


The reason I went long is because I hated it so much I knew I was missing something. When I can't find a reason to go long something...I long it.

What I Lost Today

$2.25 million is now $1.9 million.

The Chart Des Tages: LQD

XOM....Neat Trick




Trade: Short EUR/USD @ 1.3895

Trade: +40 PCLN PUTS; Jan 12 $475

40 OTM puts; strike $475; exp 01/12

Current price $484

Eat it up Bitchez

Blowup: MF Global

So why is this a bigger deal than normal? Well to start, MFGlobal headed by John Corzine, is a pretty big broker dealer. In fact, they are also a Primary Dealer to the Federal Reserve. List of Primary Dealers

He should have been following my blog instead of blowing up his firm

Nasdaq 100 Getting Taken To The Shed

Annnnnnnd the EUR/USD: Where did daddy short this? Check red line white circle


Just look at this thing...yuck

Annnnnd: Puts Puts those puts


Do I need to comment on what this is trying to tell us?

It means serious inter-bank lending problems have begun to manifest in earnest.

Italy 10Yr Bonds

Many view that any sustainable move into 6%+ is the beginning of the end for Italy and that 7% would signal terminal illness for not just Italy but the entire EZ experiment. The Italian 10yr has briefly breached 6% twice before (once in August, once in September), so this is something I view as critical to watching. You'll notice it just about kissed 5.99% this morning so we are very close.

In other news, Merkel is giving a speech right now to the Bundestag which I find unimpressive. In summation...Merkel calls for more responsibility from EURO states....leveraging the EFSF to be discussed tonight....EU treaties must be changed. It should be noted that the Bundestag will have to approve any major bailout so she is pandering to them.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Monday, October 24, 2011


For a broader perspective (as in a year):

Trade: +5,000 FAZ @ 42.25

Decoupling From Reality: Trade; -1,000 LQD @ 113.49

HYG...JNK...LQD have all disconnected from currency movements at the moment.

Watch those ETFs in the coming days.

Greece And Haircuts

Greek Public Sector Funds hold 30 billion euros in Greek debt. Have fun telling the pensioners about the 50% to 75% haircuts to their retirements.

Trade: Short EUR/USD @ 1.3937

And speaking of forex...look at this nightmare

And to give you an idea of how badly people don't want to be contaminated by plutonium/strontium/uranium, etc...

And some headlines from enenews for those thinking of taking advantage of this "once in a lifetime oppourtunity"

Houston We Got A Problem

Every $10 rise in oil is a reduction of .5% from GDP

Ladies and Gentleman...I bring you October

And the crack spread (1 month)

Crack Spread intraday


UPDATE: Literally the minute I posted this, MS dropped it like it's hot

Huge sale in High Yield Investment Grade

VIX bottoming out

Morgan Stanley weakness (pseudo proxy to Europe)

And lastly... no chart but the eur/usd is flaccid

Worth Your Weight? And Everything About Fatness In The Workplace

An interesting report by the St.Louis Fed recently released about fatness in the work place. I was mid giggle throughout reading it and I don't want to ruin the surprise for everyone. Here's the full article:

Delinquencies On All Loans Secured By Real-Estate....

Through Q2 2011 Delinquencies On All Loans And Leases, Secured By Real Estate, Farmland, Booked In Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks


Delinquency Rate On Single-Family Residential Mortgages, Booked In Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks

When you hear about cracks in the system having the propensity to spider web out...this is what the cracks look like. While everyone on MSM is saying things are getting better...they're not.