Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Stand By

It looks to me that the market is FINALLY starting to wake up to reality.

I have built a massive short position relative to this portfolio size since around 1,300 on the /ES, at the start of Feb. I didn't balls to the wall short it in one trade as I knew I would not clip the top of the move, and instead I gradually shorted starting at 1,307 with my last short position being at 1356.00. I have been noticeably absent in that as of lately there was literally NOTHING to discuss.

The market was moving up for no other reason than the market was moving up. The premise for this trade has been that Europe is far from being resolved, and the Econ data coming from the U.S and China has been generously massaged, and higher energy inputs would handicap future growth.

There is another shadow looming and that is of the U.S nearing it's debt ceiling at around the time of the Presidential election, an election, which in my mind will be one of the most polarized and divisive in modern American politics. There are severe economic problems that have NOT been resolved. You can look at the U3 UE number all you want and cheer-lead how it's going down, but when record numbers of Americans are relying on food stamps, and when the labor force participation continues to decline, I for one decline to accept the veracity of economic recovery that the MSM has so brazenly accepted.

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Thursday, February 16, 2012


This is the main conduit between printing money and true prices. This is the price of gas; the final arbiter of discretion

Trade: -5 /ES @ 1356.00

Wednesday, February 15, 2012


That chart looks daunting and with all the headline tail risk (obviously everything in Europe, US breaching the debt ceiling before the election, and the Middle East) it's downright frightening. I'm not making a prediction but I wouldn't be surprised if when this market turns we don't revisit 666 on the SnP or lower. Again, it's not a prediction, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

This is such an incredible position from a historical perspective because never before has the world explored the levels of debt we are currently at. At least the Fed keeps me laughing, every time the DOW is -70 out comes some Fed statement saying they haven't ruled out further asset purchases.

I haven't made any changes to my positions so if you need me to re-post them let me know.

Monday, February 13, 2012

AAPL: Without Comment

Where Are We?

Where are we in David Einhorn's pentagram graphic?

....end of the champagne party

Source: Zerohedge

Obama Proposes Revival Of Build America Bonds?

Build America Bonds were created under Section 1531 of Title I of Division B under The American Recovery and Investment act in Feb of 2009 to help ease the financial crisis.

Basically bonds that carry special tax credits to help states and municipalities lower their borrowing costs. This is obviously so they can hire more people.

For all intents and purposes this is a "stimulus" program. The peculiar thing is that Obama is saying the economy is in recovery so do we need this stimulus? This would be akin to your parents being in the hospital "recovering" from a heart attack, and the doctor telling you the parents are getting better but we are going to defibrillate them because it's a good idea.

This is in conjunction with Ben saying 0% rates to 2014.

The following is a chart of MUB (iShares S&P National Municipal):

In simple words the higher this goes the lower the yields (borrowing costs) for municipalities is. So what the fuck is going here?

The government is obviously lying (the economy is not getting better, the BLS numbers are faked) and more stimulus is needed.

In other news the de facto interest rate tool the market has adopted is pegged up in the $100 p/b range which is the last thing the economy needs to recover

HYG & JNK Not Buying It

Foxconn tea leaves for $AAPL enthusiasts:

EUR/USD @ pre Greek vote levels:

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Same Positions:

You have 13 people in a room arguing. An agreement is going to happen...

I don't see it happening.

Disorderly default.


Monday, February 6, 2012


I don't post (stop/limit) orders..because I don't make them (I know I'm kind of a maverick ) You don't remember my positions being down 100k before being up 200k?

I am politely entertained that you are intelligent, especially when it comes to the finer things in life like stochastics.

You could teach me so much.

Selling Short On Margin: -10 ES @ 1334

I called my broker and posted add. collateral to put this trade on for this acct: