It looks to me that the market is FINALLY starting to wake up to reality.
I have built a massive short position relative to this portfolio size since around 1,300 on the /ES, at the start of Feb. I didn't balls to the wall short it in one trade as I knew I would not clip the top of the move, and instead I gradually shorted starting at 1,307 with my last short position being at 1356.00.
I have been noticeably absent in that as of lately there was literally NOTHING to discuss.
The market was moving up for no other reason than the market was moving up.
The premise for this trade has been that Europe is far from being resolved, and the Econ data coming from the U.S and China has been generously massaged, and higher energy inputs would handicap future growth.
There is another shadow looming and that is of the U.S nearing it's debt ceiling at around the time of the Presidential election, an election, which in my mind will be one of the most polarized and divisive in modern American politics.
There are severe economic problems that have NOT been resolved. You can look at the U3 UE number all you want and cheer-lead how it's going down, but when record numbers of Americans are relying on food stamps, and when the labor force participation continues to decline, I for one decline to accept the veracity of economic recovery that the MSM has so brazenly accepted.
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Saturday, February 18, 2012
Caption Contest: Most Expensive Pump In California
6101 W Olympic Blvd & Fairfax Ave - $4.93 a gallon for regular
Thursday, February 16, 2012
RBOB
This is the main conduit between printing money and true prices. This is the price of gas; the final arbiter of discretion
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Ugly
That chart looks daunting and with all the headline tail risk (obviously everything in Europe, US breaching the debt ceiling before the election, and the Middle East) it's downright frightening. I'm not making a prediction but I wouldn't be surprised if when this market turns we don't revisit 666 on the SnP or lower. Again, it's not a prediction, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least.
This is such an incredible position from a historical perspective because never before has the world explored the levels of debt we are currently at. At least the Fed keeps me laughing, every time the DOW is -70 out comes some Fed statement saying they haven't ruled out further asset purchases.
I haven't made any changes to my positions so if you need me to re-post them let me know.
Monday, February 13, 2012
Where Are We?
Where are we in David Einhorn's pentagram graphic?
....end of the champagne party
Source: Zerohedge
....end of the champagne party
Source: Zerohedge
Obama Proposes Revival Of Build America Bonds?
Build America Bonds were created under Section 1531 of Title I of Division B under The American Recovery and Investment act in Feb of 2009 to help ease the financial crisis.
Basically bonds that carry special tax credits to help states and municipalities lower their borrowing costs. This is obviously so they can hire more people.
For all intents and purposes this is a "stimulus" program. The peculiar thing is that Obama is saying the economy is in recovery so do we need this stimulus? This would be akin to your parents being in the hospital "recovering" from a heart attack, and the doctor telling you the parents are getting better but we are going to defibrillate them because it's a good idea.
This is in conjunction with Ben saying 0% rates to 2014.
The following is a chart of MUB (iShares S&P National Municipal):
In simple words the higher this goes the lower the yields (borrowing costs) for municipalities is. So what the fuck is going here?
The government is obviously lying (the economy is not getting better, the BLS numbers are faked) and more stimulus is needed.
In other news the de facto interest rate tool the market has adopted is pegged up in the $100 p/b range which is the last thing the economy needs to recover
Basically bonds that carry special tax credits to help states and municipalities lower their borrowing costs. This is obviously so they can hire more people.
For all intents and purposes this is a "stimulus" program. The peculiar thing is that Obama is saying the economy is in recovery so do we need this stimulus? This would be akin to your parents being in the hospital "recovering" from a heart attack, and the doctor telling you the parents are getting better but we are going to defibrillate them because it's a good idea.
This is in conjunction with Ben saying 0% rates to 2014.
The following is a chart of MUB (iShares S&P National Municipal):
In simple words the higher this goes the lower the yields (borrowing costs) for municipalities is. So what the fuck is going here?
The government is obviously lying (the economy is not getting better, the BLS numbers are faked) and more stimulus is needed.
In other news the de facto interest rate tool the market has adopted is pegged up in the $100 p/b range which is the last thing the economy needs to recover
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Same Positions:
You have 13 people in a room arguing. An agreement is going to happen...
I don't see it happening.
Disorderly default.
Positions:
I don't see it happening.
Disorderly default.
Positions:
Monday, February 6, 2012
Jaffleck
I don't post (stop/limit) orders..because I don't make them (I know I'm kind of a maverick ) You don't remember my positions being down 100k before being up 200k?
I am politely entertained that you are intelligent, especially when it comes to the finer things in life like stochastics.
You could teach me so much.
I am politely entertained that you are intelligent, especially when it comes to the finer things in life like stochastics.
You could teach me so much.
Selling Short On Margin: -10 ES @ 1334
I called my broker and posted add. collateral to put this trade on for this acct:
I AM SHORT BALLLS TO THE WALL
I AM SHORT BALLLS TO THE WALL
Jaffleck: This Post Is For You
Ivan Petrovich Pavlov was born in 1849 in Ryazan, where his father worked as a village priest. In 1870 Ivan Pavlov abandoned the religious career for which he had been preparing, and instead went into science. There he had a great impact on the field of physiology by studying the mechanisms underlying the digestive system in mammals.
For his original work in this field of research, Pavlov was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1904. By then he had turned to studying the laws on the formation of conditioned reflexes, a topic on which he worked until his death in 1936. His discoveries in this field paved the way for an objective science of behavior.
While Ivan Pavlov worked to unveil the secrets of the digestive system, he also studied what signals triggered related phenomena, such as the secretion of saliva. When a dog encounters food, saliva starts to pour from the salivary glands located in the back of its oral cavity. This saliva is needed in order to make the food easier to swallow. The fluid also contains enzymes that break down certain compounds in the food. In humans, for example, saliva contains the enzyme amylase, an effective processor of starch.
Pavlov became interested in studying reflexes when he saw that the dogs drooled without the proper stimulus. Although no food was in sight, their saliva still dribbled. It turned out that the dogs were reacting to lab coats. Every time the dogs were served food, the person who served the food was wearing a lab coat. Therefore, the dogs reacted as if food was on its way whenever they saw a lab coat.
In a series of experiments, Pavlov then tried to figure out how these phenomena were linked. For example, he struck a bell when the dogs were fed. If the bell was sounded in close association with their meal, the dogs learnt to associate the sound of the bell with food. After a while, at the mere sound of the bell, they responded by drooling.
My question for you -
Why don't you watch CNBC (it's the Pavlov bell)?
For his original work in this field of research, Pavlov was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1904. By then he had turned to studying the laws on the formation of conditioned reflexes, a topic on which he worked until his death in 1936. His discoveries in this field paved the way for an objective science of behavior.
While Ivan Pavlov worked to unveil the secrets of the digestive system, he also studied what signals triggered related phenomena, such as the secretion of saliva. When a dog encounters food, saliva starts to pour from the salivary glands located in the back of its oral cavity. This saliva is needed in order to make the food easier to swallow. The fluid also contains enzymes that break down certain compounds in the food. In humans, for example, saliva contains the enzyme amylase, an effective processor of starch.
Pavlov became interested in studying reflexes when he saw that the dogs drooled without the proper stimulus. Although no food was in sight, their saliva still dribbled. It turned out that the dogs were reacting to lab coats. Every time the dogs were served food, the person who served the food was wearing a lab coat. Therefore, the dogs reacted as if food was on its way whenever they saw a lab coat.
In a series of experiments, Pavlov then tried to figure out how these phenomena were linked. For example, he struck a bell when the dogs were fed. If the bell was sounded in close association with their meal, the dogs learnt to associate the sound of the bell with food. After a while, at the mere sound of the bell, they responded by drooling.
My question for you -
Why don't you watch CNBC (it's the Pavlov bell)?
Friday, February 3, 2012
Parabolic
When price action moves in this fashion it would behoove you to take extreme caution.
Parabolic price action ends in pain.
"Nasdaq" was seemingly mentioned every other word on CNBC today.
Parabolic price action ends in pain.
"Nasdaq" was seemingly mentioned every other word on CNBC today.
RSI Wilder
So there is a plethora of charts I look at; stock, credit, econ indicators, etc. The headline study for today in the above chart is the RSI Wilder study which for those who have followed this blog in the past, has been mentioned. The reason I am bringing up this particular study is because I have had much success using it. It's not perfect, and it doesn't give perfect signals (as nothing does) however, this indicator is literally screaming to sell. This indicator is telling you, if anything the market is way overextended on the long side and let's be honest, this rally has been on fire practically the entire year.
So can it go higher? haha, I hope not but it can and it might. From the multifarious charts, indicators, data I look it I'm choosing to "fight the tape" so to say. This could end in absolute pain and misery but that's the market, and if it was easy, everyone would be trading.
Obviously those who read this blog also read ZH so there's no need to even talk about the UE, and should the BLS lower the labor participation to 55% we could have a 0% U3 number by the time the elections come about. It's also queer to me that the market has priced in Europe being fixed. Sure a lot of liquidity has been injected by CBs but the market is pricing in perfection, and when it does that, it's normally time to sell.
I posit that the market probably meanders a bit at these levels today with Monday being a down day as Europe comes back into focus.
Time will tell
-10 /ES @ 1339
Rule numero uno: Never double down on losing positions, just ask John Corzine. However, due to several things which I will discuss later, I will better explain this decision to my readers. Despite the HUGE positions relative to cash I'm practically unch @ +4% since I started the blog. If you want to talk REALIZED gains, as in gains I have locked in, I am up $27,000 (still nursing that UN-realized losing /es position)
Closed Gold: Crazy
Gold plunged and as such netted me $22,400. However, the /ES surged and as of writing this has cost me $18,200 so this may need some tending to. The gold position is closed
I think of now I'm going to play this hand cool, but there's not much room before I eat the loss.
I think of now I'm going to play this hand cool, but there's not much room before I eat the loss.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Changes/ CPU
So I got new computers and everything is all screwed up for my logins and everything, so I'm gona' need some time to do some rejiggering here.
To David - I own physical but it's gone up $235 in less than a month. Trust me I know alllll about the currency debasement debauchery and debt ceiling shenanigans but it's really just short-term trade, who knows, maybe I'm wrong. It's really a weird time to be investing; oil going down, BDI plunging to record lows, gold up, stocks up, copper up, food stamp users up, Europe blowing up. I mean there is a lot of nonsensical shit going on right now.
To David - I own physical but it's gone up $235 in less than a month. Trust me I know alllll about the currency debasement debauchery and debt ceiling shenanigans but it's really just short-term trade, who knows, maybe I'm wrong. It's really a weird time to be investing; oil going down, BDI plunging to record lows, gold up, stocks up, copper up, food stamp users up, Europe blowing up. I mean there is a lot of nonsensical shit going on right now.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Foul Ball
It's not even worth posting a SS, as of the closing bell I was down a $1,000 note on an unrealized basis.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
-3 /ES @ 1307
There are a few big positions I'll be putting on but right now I'm just batting for singles. When I see the signals I'm looking for I'll be putting on the monster orders, but for right now; keep it simple stupid
Bagged A Fiver
We got a long year ahead, and landing a fiver (5%) on the first day is good enough for me to take the day off
Monday, January 30, 2012
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