Friday, February 3, 2012
So there is a plethora of charts I look at; stock, credit, econ indicators, etc. The headline study for today in the above chart is the RSI Wilder study which for those who have followed this blog in the past, has been mentioned. The reason I am bringing up this particular study is because I have had much success using it. It's not perfect, and it doesn't give perfect signals (as nothing does) however, this indicator is literally screaming to sell. This indicator is telling you, if anything the market is way overextended on the long side and let's be honest, this rally has been on fire practically the entire year.
So can it go higher? haha, I hope not but it can and it might. From the multifarious charts, indicators, data I look it I'm choosing to "fight the tape" so to say. This could end in absolute pain and misery but that's the market, and if it was easy, everyone would be trading.
Obviously those who read this blog also read ZH so there's no need to even talk about the UE, and should the BLS lower the labor participation to 55% we could have a 0% U3 number by the time the elections come about. It's also queer to me that the market has priced in Europe being fixed. Sure a lot of liquidity has been injected by CBs but the market is pricing in perfection, and when it does that, it's normally time to sell.
I posit that the market probably meanders a bit at these levels today with Monday being a down day as Europe comes back into focus.
Time will tell
Posted by Admin at 12:18 PM