Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Stand By

It looks to me that the market is FINALLY starting to wake up to reality.

I have built a massive short position relative to this portfolio size since around 1,300 on the /ES, at the start of Feb. I didn't balls to the wall short it in one trade as I knew I would not clip the top of the move, and instead I gradually shorted starting at 1,307 with my last short position being at 1356.00. I have been noticeably absent in that as of lately there was literally NOTHING to discuss.

The market was moving up for no other reason than the market was moving up. The premise for this trade has been that Europe is far from being resolved, and the Econ data coming from the U.S and China has been generously massaged, and higher energy inputs would handicap future growth.

There is another shadow looming and that is of the U.S nearing it's debt ceiling at around the time of the Presidential election, an election, which in my mind will be one of the most polarized and divisive in modern American politics. There are severe economic problems that have NOT been resolved. You can look at the U3 UE number all you want and cheer-lead how it's going down, but when record numbers of Americans are relying on food stamps, and when the labor force participation continues to decline, I for one decline to accept the veracity of economic recovery that the MSM has so brazenly accepted.

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