Friday, September 30, 2011


So here is some TA I've been watching that I'll share with you all.

On the the hourly chart, the October crude contract is bouncing off the Fib levels almost predictably. There are factors that can cause this to change like DefconIII in Europe, but I don't portend that happening in the near-term. It looks like the powers that be are committed to postponing the inevitable for as long as possible. If oil moves out of the upper range (90.57) or the lower range (76.97) a redraw would have to occur and other studies would need to be applied.

In addition, the RSIWilder has been a good indicator highlighting the overbought and oversold conditions and is indicated in the lower section of the SS. When it crosses below the lower boundary - good time to buy; when it crosses the upper boundary - good time to sell. It doesn't work flawlessly but it's been working well enough. I have annotated those levels with the circles. When used in conjunction with the Fib levels, you have a pretty solid idea for good entry/exit points.

You'll obviously want to be paying attention to other factors like economic data, and FX pairs, more notably the $DXY/, EUR/USD, and to a lesser extent the AUD/USD.

Moving averages are like magnets for price, and can be good indicators of support resistance. The 500 is the more powerful magnet in most cases so it looks like price is likely to move between $85-$90 (it should be noted that the 500sma is the same level as the upper Fib boundary, so that will be a key level to watch should the price move towards those levels)

I'll be out for most of today so my posting will be negligible, if at all. Good luck trading


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