Friday, September 30, 2011
Goldman Sachs/ Morgan Stanley
Whatever is happening to MS is also disrupting Goldman Sachs at least from an equity perspective. The charts have quite a few similarities to say the least if you can even spot any differences. They look like the same chart huh?
Oil
So here is some TA I've been watching that I'll share with you all.
On the the hourly chart, the October crude contract is bouncing off the Fib levels almost predictably. There are factors that can cause this to change like DefconIII in Europe, but I don't portend that happening in the near-term. It looks like the powers that be are committed to postponing the inevitable for as long as possible. If oil moves out of the upper range (90.57) or the lower range (76.97) a redraw would have to occur and other studies would need to be applied.
In addition, the RSIWilder has been a good indicator highlighting the overbought and oversold conditions and is indicated in the lower section of the SS. When it crosses below the lower boundary - good time to buy; when it crosses the upper boundary - good time to sell. It doesn't work flawlessly but it's been working well enough. I have annotated those levels with the circles. When used in conjunction with the Fib levels, you have a pretty solid idea for good entry/exit points.
You'll obviously want to be paying attention to other factors like economic data, and FX pairs, more notably the $DXY/, EUR/USD, and to a lesser extent the AUD/USD.
Moving averages are like magnets for price, and can be good indicators of support resistance. The 500 is the more powerful magnet in most cases so it looks like price is likely to move between $85-$90 (it should be noted that the 500sma is the same level as the upper Fib boundary, so that will be a key level to watch should the price move towards those levels)
I'll be out for most of today so my posting will be negligible, if at all. Good luck trading
Cheers
On the the hourly chart, the October crude contract is bouncing off the Fib levels almost predictably. There are factors that can cause this to change like DefconIII in Europe, but I don't portend that happening in the near-term. It looks like the powers that be are committed to postponing the inevitable for as long as possible. If oil moves out of the upper range (90.57) or the lower range (76.97) a redraw would have to occur and other studies would need to be applied.
In addition, the RSIWilder has been a good indicator highlighting the overbought and oversold conditions and is indicated in the lower section of the SS. When it crosses below the lower boundary - good time to buy; when it crosses the upper boundary - good time to sell. It doesn't work flawlessly but it's been working well enough. I have annotated those levels with the circles. When used in conjunction with the Fib levels, you have a pretty solid idea for good entry/exit points.
You'll obviously want to be paying attention to other factors like economic data, and FX pairs, more notably the $DXY/, EUR/USD, and to a lesser extent the AUD/USD.
Moving averages are like magnets for price, and can be good indicators of support resistance. The 500 is the more powerful magnet in most cases so it looks like price is likely to move between $85-$90 (it should be noted that the 500sma is the same level as the upper Fib boundary, so that will be a key level to watch should the price move towards those levels)
I'll be out for most of today so my posting will be negligible, if at all. Good luck trading
Cheers
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Copper Observation
Copper has taken an absolute drubbing as of late and currently is off 7%+
It looks oversold and I'll be looking closely at making taking a long position for a trade. I assume this to be commodity funds liquidating and also China selling.
It looks oversold and I'll be looking closely at making taking a long position for a trade. I assume this to be commodity funds liquidating and also China selling.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Closeout
It took me a while to put the trade on and a while to take the trade off (about 2 hours). I walked away from this trade with 165k.
No positions currently
No positions currently
With All The Drama All I Got Was This 62k Profit
Negativity Welcome
Paper, paper, paper.
These positions are still open.
Paper, paper, paper.
These positions are still open.
Monday, September 26, 2011
When A Good Hedge Goes Bad: Trade Underwater
I should have closed these a while back but I wasn't smart and it cost me $2,500. They're closed with the $2,500 loss.
One of the things that got me was the $dxy fakeout.
But in reality you hope your hedges are the losers.
Trade: -2 /CL @ $81.02; -2 /ES @ 1155.50
Put a little hedge on because the market is looking a bit on the weak side.
Comic Fodder: Long Breastfeeding Rooms
It's a slow evening in the markets and upon some casual reading I came across some information that made me want to laugh and vomit at the same time. If you're tired of the same ol'-same ol' Maxine Waters/Al Sharpton/Obama stirring race relations and class warfare the following article from the consumerist.com will provide some much needed relief and give you an idea of what was in the bill that had to be passed to find out what was in it (Obamacare) You just can't make this shit up.
It requires employers to provide "a place, other than a bathroom, that is shielded from view and free from intrusion from co-workers and the public, which may be used by an employee to express breast milk."
There are already laws on the books in 44 states allowing nursing mothers to breastfeed their children anywhere, public or private, something Ikea and Babies "R" Us have experienced first hand. In addition, 24 states already include legislation on workplace breastfeeding.
Ellen Galinsky, president and co-founder of the nonprofit research organization Families and Work Institute, tells CNN she’s pleased as punch over this new development. She says:
It reflects both a shifting attitude, a shifting reality, and also the impact of research that shows that it's healthier for the kids, and therefore good for the company, good for the family.
Companies with 50 or less employees can opt out by claiming that such a room would be an undue hardship.
http://consumerist.com/2010/04/obamacare-provides-a-room-to-pump-breast-milk-in.html
The only question I have is when is Blackrock going to come out with a 3X leverage bull ETF for builders of breastfeeding rooms because I am all in with 8x leverage.
Lactation Room; lactate in peace:
Rip Your Face Off Rally: Closing Bell
Singin' the coulda, woulda, shouldas. Could have bought more but I'm not complaining.
Trade: +2000 FAZ @ $66.75
Mostly just a hedge at this point
Bank stocks look like they're getting weak and that means the whole market could turnover.
Bank stocks look like they're getting weak and that means the whole market could turnover.
Trade: +2000 JNK @ $37.43; HYG +2000 $85.60
If I need to hedge any exposure (like after EOD for normal trading) I can always tap the futures market.
Trade: +2000 APA @ $83.78; +2000 XOM @ $70.46
I felt like I had to get some long exposure to stocks for really no other reason than UST yields are so damn low. I chose the energy sector as coming off oversold levels seemed attractive and this is how I chose to put the risk on. However, if the market gets it's mood on I can take these off with a quickness.
The TA for these seemed solid on my analysis and I believe the fundamentals are behind the energy sector more than any other sector I looked at.
I Wanted To Say Thanks And Wow
So I started this blog not too long ago, 15 days to be exact or 11 trading days. To be honest I didn't think the blog would take off as fast as it has. In just the last 15 days the blog has seen it's page views rise to almost 10,000 (count for my clicks has been disabled from day 1, so those are all you guys), with visitors coming from 58 countries, in over 718 cities! Not to mention I am seeing new visitors increase every day. So with that being said, for those that participate in the site via comments I hope it continues and thanks again for visiting. Good luck trading!
Cheers
Top Countries:
United States
Canada
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Germany
Sweden
Australia
Switzerland
China
Cheers
Top Countries:
United States
Canada
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Germany
Sweden
Australia
Switzerland
China
Trade: Buy To Cover 10 /GC @ Average Fill $1580
Just booking profits
+72k
May re-enter at more favorable prices. I have to listen to what the price says.
+72k
May re-enter at more favorable prices. I have to listen to what the price says.
It's Getting Real For The PM Bugs; Slaughter House
If you've been following this blog you know what's up.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Fibonacci
So there are a lot of things I look at on different time periods. The one thing I want to point out is the Fibonacci levels of the recent sell-off. I'm not going too much into detail but it looks like the price is coming very close to respecting these levels as such I will be respecting these levels. Let us not forget that I am still short gold @ 1654 so I will be looking at the 1674 area (note I said area) to eat my hat. However, I look at many things before making a determination, this is just one of them. We will have to see what the price tells us. I'll fight a lot of things in life, but price is not one of them, it is after all the final arbiter.
Oh No It Diint; Silver $29.04 Print
Someone is getting out of dodge. This was on good volume considering the time, must be retail selling /sarc
You Can Call Him Sparkles
Many investors have turned bullish on gold, helping it reach a record high above $1,900 an ounce last month. Count real estate mogul/reality TV star Donald Trump as one of the believers.
Trump is even accepting gold as a security deposit from the latest tenant in his building at 40 Wall Street in New York City, The Wall Street Journal reports.
The tenant is precious-metals dealer Apmex, and it is giving Trump 96 ounces of gold, worth about $174,000. The payment is being made in three bars of gold, each about the size of a TV remote control device.
Donald Trump
(Getty Images photo) Trump, who owns some gold in his personal investments, views the deal as a statement of opposition against President Barack Obama’s economic policies.
"It's a sad day when a large property owner starts accepting gold instead of the dollar," Trump tells The Wall Street Journal.
"The economy is bad, and Obama's not protecting the dollar at all. . . . If I do this, other people are going to start doing it, and maybe we'll see some changes."
Some gold bugs anticipate huge, multi-year gains by the precious metal. Dylan Grice, a global strategist at Societe Generale, says it may hit $10,000, as its price catches up to the surging U.S. money supply.
“There is a demand for an honest currency,” Grice writes in a report obtained by Bloomberg
http://www.newsmax.com/StreetTalk/Trump-Gold-Bullion-Deposit/2011/09/15/id/411117
For the record, that $174,000 deposit is now worth about $150,000. Woops, shoulda' been reading TOF Don.
Anticipation
I have lots of dry powder...will I short? Will I long? Will it be bonds, stocks. commodities?
Will I make a FX decision? I am poised to make a MAJOR investment....
Saturday, September 24, 2011
BRICS, Europe, And Where We Are At
At this point it is well known that European banks were the largest benefactors of the Fed intervention of recent years. But were they really? It's been no secret that the Chinese and other emerging market economies have been on fire...until recently. So now that the European debt crisis is reaching fever pitch who could be the hardest hit? If what I think is about to happen occurs I believe that the BRIC countries could see the worst of it, and that those like Jim Chanos and Hugh Hendry could turn out to be right more than they anticipated.
According to the Bank Of International Settlements European banks had claims of 3.5 trillion dollars to emerging market economies, followed by America with 740 billion dollars and Japan with 310 billion dollars. So it should be no surprise that following the financial meltdown of 2008 and the trillions of dollars pledged to both foreign and domestic banks that countries like China and India saw their inflation and GDP skyrocket by blistering double digits. Well it's no secret where the funding for that growth came from...US taxpayers. It's also why you are seeing China starting to get all hot-n-bothered wanting a different global monetary system all of a sudden; shit meet fan
But let's go back to the European crisis and it's possible contagion. Going back to what I said earlier European banks had claims of $3.5 trillion to the emerging market economies. So it should be expected with European liquidity freezing that BRIC countries will see their funding needs dry up and countries like China not likely able to continue building empty cities in perpetuity http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk and thus global growth grind to a halt. Let's look at some charts.
SHCOMP(China): -25% YTD
SENSEX (India): -24% YTD
RTSI (Russia): A BRUTAL -36%
So these are the countries that were supposed to lead us out of this recession. Well these countries were funded via the Fed and by proxy US taxpayers through mainly European banks. This is funny because China likes to buy UST securities through London so it seems like Europe is the conduit for China and America to conduct shadow political deals. And with liquidity becoming ever scarcer and funding drying up (we know why now) it's easy to see how the European debt crisis could reverberate through the global financial system like the 9.0 earthquake that rocked Japan. Also, it should be noted, that these were the countries that were supposed to be buying up all the gold in the world.
Look for trade wars, currency wars, and than wars (we've already seen the first two begin to materialize)Also look for a mad dash to the fiat king the USD.
And a question for my readers to think about:
If the BRICS are the "White Knight" that is going to bailout the world...who is going to bailout the BRICS?
According to the Bank Of International Settlements European banks had claims of 3.5 trillion dollars to emerging market economies, followed by America with 740 billion dollars and Japan with 310 billion dollars. So it should be no surprise that following the financial meltdown of 2008 and the trillions of dollars pledged to both foreign and domestic banks that countries like China and India saw their inflation and GDP skyrocket by blistering double digits. Well it's no secret where the funding for that growth came from...US taxpayers. It's also why you are seeing China starting to get all hot-n-bothered wanting a different global monetary system all of a sudden; shit meet fan
But let's go back to the European crisis and it's possible contagion. Going back to what I said earlier European banks had claims of $3.5 trillion to the emerging market economies. So it should be expected with European liquidity freezing that BRIC countries will see their funding needs dry up and countries like China not likely able to continue building empty cities in perpetuity http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk and thus global growth grind to a halt. Let's look at some charts.
SHCOMP(China): -25% YTD
SENSEX (India): -24% YTD
RTSI (Russia): A BRUTAL -36%
So these are the countries that were supposed to lead us out of this recession. Well these countries were funded via the Fed and by proxy US taxpayers through mainly European banks. This is funny because China likes to buy UST securities through London so it seems like Europe is the conduit for China and America to conduct shadow political deals. And with liquidity becoming ever scarcer and funding drying up (we know why now) it's easy to see how the European debt crisis could reverberate through the global financial system like the 9.0 earthquake that rocked Japan. Also, it should be noted, that these were the countries that were supposed to be buying up all the gold in the world.
Look for trade wars, currency wars, and than wars (we've already seen the first two begin to materialize)Also look for a mad dash to the fiat king the USD.
And a question for my readers to think about:
If the BRICS are the "White Knight" that is going to bailout the world...who is going to bailout the BRICS?
Friday, September 23, 2011
Margin Hike? Really?
Spot the margin hike and tell me (with a straight face) the price action is because of the margin hike. I annotated it on the chart....where's Waldo?
And so now when margin hikes occur prices go up...mmhmmm, had nothing to do with liquidation of assets to raise cash like from yesterday -
"Yesterday, the textbook was thrown out the window. All asset classes saw sudden and sharp moves far in excess of normal volatility patterns. To an old timer, that points to one conclusion. Liquidation. Wide-spread liquidation across asset classes. Currencies, bonds, commodities and stocks all moved swiftly and sharply in a direction that screamed - Seek safety! Raise cash! Get liquid...
All of that had a quick and discernible negative impact on markets. But, the selling was far more pervasive and dramatic than simply a conscious adjustment of positions based upon new data. Thursday’s action screamed liquidation - and not all of it voluntary."
-Art Cashin, 22 September 2011
Quote courtesy of:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
And so now when margin hikes occur prices go up...mmhmmm, had nothing to do with liquidation of assets to raise cash like from yesterday -
"Yesterday, the textbook was thrown out the window. All asset classes saw sudden and sharp moves far in excess of normal volatility patterns. To an old timer, that points to one conclusion. Liquidation. Wide-spread liquidation across asset classes. Currencies, bonds, commodities and stocks all moved swiftly and sharply in a direction that screamed - Seek safety! Raise cash! Get liquid...
All of that had a quick and discernible negative impact on markets. But, the selling was far more pervasive and dramatic than simply a conscious adjustment of positions based upon new data. Thursday’s action screamed liquidation - and not all of it voluntary."
-Art Cashin, 22 September 2011
Quote courtesy of:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
Trade: APA Closed @ 82.68
$-1,840
One of the most important things about trading is not letting losses get out of control. Took a shaving but relatively unscathed. Stocks could tank Monday morning so I'm not willing to keep the risk on here.
Trade: Sell To Cover @1650 /GC
Update: It went off, closed out; +33k
Order in to lock in profits...let's see if this one hits
Price currently @ 1643.50
Order in to lock in profits...let's see if this one hits
Price currently @ 1643.50
Gold: Disembowelment -100 +
Disembowelment tr.v. dis·em·bow·eled or dis·em·bow·elled, dis·em·bow·el·ing or dis·em·bow·el·ling, dis·em·bow·els
1. To remove the entrails from.
2. To deprive of meaning or substance.
I regret that I'm only short 3 contracts, I really thought we would get a bounce.
1. To remove the entrails from.
2. To deprive of meaning or substance.
I regret that I'm only short 3 contracts, I really thought we would get a bounce.
Trade: +2000 APA @ $83.50
I like the company and I like the underlying commodity.
I think Treasury prices are too high and that a lot of that money will find it's way into stocks. I looked at a lot of different options but felt like this was the best to take on a test run. If stocks get sold hard, I'll sell and take a small loss. If stocks stabilize I'll buy more. This looks good to me here.
I've done a lot of analysis on this trade that I'll post shortly.
I think Treasury prices are too high and that a lot of that money will find it's way into stocks. I looked at a lot of different options but felt like this was the best to take on a test run. If stocks get sold hard, I'll sell and take a small loss. If stocks stabilize I'll buy more. This looks good to me here.
I've done a lot of analysis on this trade that I'll post shortly.
Trade Cancel:
The price came within dimes of closing and than something happened....the sell off began to intensify. I canceled the order to view this more closely.
Paulson liquidating? This isn't retail investors selling, these down moves are coming on volume. This is a whale(s) selling. This is going to catch a lot of people off guard and something is going to blow up somewhere if this continues unabated.
We could see a lot more downside so I'm just watching this very closely right now.
Paulson liquidating? This isn't retail investors selling, these down moves are coming on volume. This is a whale(s) selling. This is going to catch a lot of people off guard and something is going to blow up somewhere if this continues unabated.
We could see a lot more downside so I'm just watching this very closely right now.
Trade: Sell Order Put In @ 1684
If anyone wants to hit the bid that's where I'm out to lock in profits. Currently the price is 1682.40
All I Got Was This Lousy Profit
Just 3 little /GC contracts in less than 12 hours. If you look down 2 posts you can see what time I put the trade on and the price.
Silver Getting Mike Tysoned
No, not getting it's ear bit off but falling to the canvas dazed and confused. Silver is getting KO'd this A.M down almost another 10 percent....and it's only 6:30 A.M EST
And it should be no surprise. BAC is selling everything it can to raise capital including the sale of Pizza Hut (yes I know, selling pizza delivery men) Let's look at the the top institutional holders of SLV and see why this isn't a surprise. Obviously the silver market is bigger than SLV but I find it to be a good indicator of who is doing what.
People will be crying manipulation, absolute wailing while slamming their hands on the table. Damn you Blythe Masters!!!
I normally like to make a short term trade when an asset drops it like it's hot (almost 20% in two days) but in this case I am not. However, it would not surprise me to see a viscous rally as shorts cover and the "You will have to pry my silver from my cold and dead hands" people step in and try to do something. Also, bullion dealers will be rushing to hedge their books.
And it should be no surprise. BAC is selling everything it can to raise capital including the sale of Pizza Hut (yes I know, selling pizza delivery men) Let's look at the the top institutional holders of SLV and see why this isn't a surprise. Obviously the silver market is bigger than SLV but I find it to be a good indicator of who is doing what.
People will be crying manipulation, absolute wailing while slamming their hands on the table. Damn you Blythe Masters!!!
I normally like to make a short term trade when an asset drops it like it's hot (almost 20% in two days) but in this case I am not. However, it would not surprise me to see a viscous rally as shorts cover and the "You will have to pry my silver from my cold and dead hands" people step in and try to do something. Also, bullion dealers will be rushing to hedge their books.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Markets Pummeled; Gold/Silver Clobbered
The baby, the bathwater, everything is getting thrown out the window. I would like to go long here, I really would but I think Europe and global banks imploding is kind of a big deal(not to mention the economy stinks to high heaven). The market will rally I'm sure of it because dead cats bounce but I'm not smart enough to pick the bottom, nor am I smart enough to sell the top. Still just watching.
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