Up Thrusday 300, -300 today
The volatility alone is telling me something
I have $100,000 as of 1/31/2012. I will document every trade on this site. I have 11 months to get to $1,000,000.
Monday, October 31, 2011
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Alert: Trade On Fire
Not a bad reversal of fortune from my post on Friday. Let's hope this sticks
Look at this freakin' rip!
Was there really any doubt that Japan would attempt to protect their exporters?
Friday, October 28, 2011
Updated P/L
So...October = horrendous month for me following a stellar September.
In summation most of the gains from last month have effectively been wiped clean. However, the winnings from September were booked as realized gains where as these are still open positions, so they are unrealized losses. There are two caveats: i. two of the largest losing positions I have are contracts (so I can't hold them forever) ii. the theta on the PCLN puts is going to rapidly reduce the overall value...so likely this will be the first position I close when it comes to that.
October was an absolute stink bomb. I'm hoping for a flash crash in the last two hours of today's session to bring me to flat.
In summation most of the gains from last month have effectively been wiped clean. However, the winnings from September were booked as realized gains where as these are still open positions, so they are unrealized losses. There are two caveats: i. two of the largest losing positions I have are contracts (so I can't hold them forever) ii. the theta on the PCLN puts is going to rapidly reduce the overall value...so likely this will be the first position I close when it comes to that.
October was an absolute stink bomb. I'm hoping for a flash crash in the last two hours of today's session to bring me to flat.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Don't Even Ask Me Why I Just Did This
I went against every inebriation and bought....
usd/jpy
The reason I went long is because I hated it so much I knew I was missing something. When I can't find a reason to go long something...I long it.
usd/jpy
The reason I went long is because I hated it so much I knew I was missing something. When I can't find a reason to go long something...I long it.
Blowup: MF Global
So why is this a bigger deal than normal? Well to start, MFGlobal headed by John Corzine, is a pretty big broker dealer. In fact, they are also a Primary Dealer to the Federal Reserve. List of Primary Dealers
He should have been following my blog instead of blowing up his firm
Libor
Do I need to comment on what this is trying to tell us?
It means serious inter-bank lending problems have begun to manifest in earnest.
It means serious inter-bank lending problems have begun to manifest in earnest.
Italy 10Yr Bonds
Many view that any sustainable move into 6%+ is the beginning of the end for Italy and that 7% would signal terminal illness for not just Italy but the entire EZ experiment. The Italian 10yr has briefly breached 6% twice before (once in August, once in September), so this is something I view as critical to watching. You'll notice it just about kissed 5.99% this morning so we are very close.
In other news, Merkel is giving a speech right now to the Bundestag which I find unimpressive. In summation...Merkel calls for more responsibility from EURO states....leveraging the EFSF to be discussed tonight....EU treaties must be changed. It should be noted that the Bundestag will have to approve any major bailout so she is pandering to them.
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Monday, October 24, 2011
Decoupling From Reality: Trade; -1,000 LQD @ 113.49
HYG...JNK...LQD have all disconnected from currency movements at the moment.
Watch those ETFs in the coming days.
Watch those ETFs in the coming days.
Greece And Haircuts
Greek Public Sector Funds hold 30 billion euros in Greek debt. Have fun telling the pensioners about the 50% to 75% haircuts to their retirements.
Trade: Short EUR/USD @ 1.3937
And speaking of forex...look at this nightmare
And to give you an idea of how badly people don't want to be contaminated by plutonium/strontium/uranium, etc...
http://www.asianwalkway.com/news/travel-to-japan-for-free-japanese-government-sponsoring-vacation-travels/
And some headlines from enenews for those thinking of taking advantage of this "once in a lifetime oppourtunity"
www.enenews.com
Houston We Got A Problem
Every $10 rise in oil is a reduction of .5% from GDP
Ladies and Gentleman...I bring you October
And the crack spread (1 month)
Crack Spread intraday
Ladies and Gentleman...I bring you October
And the crack spread (1 month)
Crack Spread intraday
Danger
UPDATE: Literally the minute I posted this, MS dropped it like it's hot
Huge sale in High Yield Investment Grade
VIX bottoming out
Morgan Stanley weakness (pseudo proxy to Europe)
And lastly... no chart but the eur/usd is flaccid
Huge sale in High Yield Investment Grade
VIX bottoming out
Morgan Stanley weakness (pseudo proxy to Europe)
And lastly... no chart but the eur/usd is flaccid
Worth Your Weight? And Everything About Fatness In The Workplace
An interesting report by the St.Louis Fed recently released about fatness in the work place. I was mid giggle throughout reading it and I don't want to ruin the surprise for everyone. Here's the full article: http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/re/articles/?id=2163&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=SM&utm_campaign=Twitter
Delinquencies On All Loans Secured By Real-Estate....
Through Q2 2011 Delinquencies On All Loans And Leases, Secured By Real Estate, Farmland, Booked In Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks
Annnndddd
Delinquency Rate On Single-Family Residential Mortgages, Booked In Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks
When you hear about cracks in the system having the propensity to spider web out...this is what the cracks look like. While everyone on MSM is saying things are getting better...they're not.
Annnndddd
Delinquency Rate On Single-Family Residential Mortgages, Booked In Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks
When you hear about cracks in the system having the propensity to spider web out...this is what the cracks look like. While everyone on MSM is saying things are getting better...they're not.
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